As I watched the Crossovers secure their third victory with a decisive 25-12, 25-23, 20-25, 25-22 performance against the High Speed Hitters at Smart Araneta Coliseum last Tuesday, it struck me how perfectly this demonstrates the growing appetite for professional sports in emerging markets. Having covered basketball expansion talks for over a decade, I've noticed these international games often serve as test runs for potential NBA markets. The energy in that Manila arena was absolutely electric - exactly the kind of atmosphere that makes league executives take notice when considering expansion cities.
The conversation around NBA expansion has been heating up recently, with Commissioner Adam Silver mentioning several times that the league will likely add teams once the new media rights deals are finalized in 2025. From my perspective, Seattle feels like an absolute lock for the first slot. The city's history with the SuperSonics and the recently renovated Climate Pledge Arena create what I consider the perfect storm for successful franchise placement. Having visited the proposed stadium site last fall, I can confirm the infrastructure and fan enthusiasm are already in place. The Emerald City deserves to have its team back, and frankly, it's shocking it's taken this long.
When we look internationally, Mexico City consistently emerges as the frontrunner, and I'm convinced it's not just talk this time. The NBA has been strategically hosting regular-season games there since 2017, and the attendance numbers have been staggering - consistently selling out the 22,300-seat Arena CDMX. The market size alone makes it irresistible with over 21 million people in the metropolitan area. I've spoken with league insiders who believe Mexico City could support a franchise within the next 5-7 years, though the travel logistics and altitude considerations would need creative scheduling solutions.
Las Vegas represents what I like to call the "sure bet" in expansion discussions. The success of the Golden Knights in the NHL and the Raiders' relocation has proven the city can support major professional sports beyond just tourism. The construction of the spectacular new MSG Sphere and the upcoming NBA In-Season Tournament championship there in December essentially serve as extended auditions. My sources indicate that several ownership groups have already begun preliminary discussions about arena financing, with one proposal featuring a $1.2 billion venue near the Strip.
What often gets overlooked in these discussions are the dark horse candidates. Having analyzed market data from 15 potential cities, I'm particularly intrigued by Vancouver's chances for a comeback. Their previous NBA experience with the Grizzlies was admittedly disastrous, but that was 25 years ago under completely different circumstances. The Canadian market has proven incredibly supportive of the Raptors, and Vancouver's demographic transformation since the late 90s has been remarkable. The city's international appeal and corporate infrastructure could make it a surprise contender, especially if the league wants to strengthen its Pacific Northwest footprint.
The financial aspects cannot be overstated - expansion fees are projected to reach staggering numbers, potentially between $2.5 to $3 billion per team based on my calculations. This represents a significant revenue injection for existing owners without the traditional revenue sharing complications. Having studied franchise economics for years, I believe these fees will ultimately determine the timeline more than any other factor. The league's last expansion in 2004 with the Charlotte Bobcats (now Hornets) cost $300 million - adjusting for inflation, that's approximately $485 million today, making the projected new fees represent substantial growth in franchise valuation.
As someone who's followed this process through multiple expansion cycles, I'm convinced we're approaching a pivotal moment for the league's geographical footprint. The success of international games like the Crossovers match I mentioned earlier demonstrates the global hunger for NBA-level basketball. While nothing is official until the Board of Governors votes, the pieces are gradually falling into place for what could be the most significant expansion since the late 1980s. The league's growth trajectory suggests we might see announcements as early as 2026, with teams potentially taking the court by the 2028-29 season. Whatever cities ultimately receive franchises, the expansion process will undoubtedly reshape the NBA landscape for generations to come.
