As I watched the Crossovers secure their third victory with that decisive 25-12, 25-23, 20-25, 25-22 performance against the High Speed Hitters at Smart Araneta Coliseum last Tuesday, it struck me how much professional sports franchises can transform a city's identity. That electric atmosphere in Manila got me thinking about NBA expansion and which cities might experience that same transformation next. Having followed league expansion patterns for over fifteen years, I've developed some strong opinions about where the NBA should plant its flag next.
Seattle absolutely deserves to be at the front of the line, and frankly, it's baffling they've been without a team since the SuperSonics left in 2008. The city has everything the NBA looks for - a passionate basketball fanbase, a corporate infrastructure capable of supporting a franchise, and that beautiful Climate Pledge Arena just waiting for an NBA tenant. I've spoken with numerous Seattle sports fans over the years, and their bitterness about losing the Sonics still runs deep. The league owes them a team, plain and simple. Commissioner Adam Silver has mentioned several times that expansion isn't imminent, but when it happens, Seattle should be the first call. The market potential there is enormous - we're talking about a metropolitan area of nearly 4 million people with no other winter professional sports competition besides the NHL's Kraken.
Now, Las Vegas presents a fascinating case study. With the Raiders and Golden Knights establishing solid footholds, plus the upcoming Athletics relocation, Vegas has proven it can support major professional sports. The NBA already holds its Summer League there, and the response has been tremendous year after year. I've attended those summer games, and the energy is palpable - tourists and locals alike pack the Thomas & Mack Center. The league would be foolish to ignore that ready-made market. Some analysts project Vegas could generate at least $350 million in annual revenue for a new franchise, though I suspect that number might be conservative given the tourist dollars that would flow through the arena.
What really excites me personally is the potential for international expansion, particularly in markets like Manila where basketball culture runs deep. Watching those Crossovers games with packed arenas reminds me that the NBA's global footprint continues to expand. Mexico City has been frequently mentioned, and I've long believed it could support a team with its massive population and growing middle class. The logistics would be challenging - travel, currency exchange, player recruitment - but the payoff could be enormous. I'd estimate the Latin American media rights alone could bring in an additional $200-250 million annually for the league.
Then there are the dark horse candidates that don't get enough attention. Louisville has rich basketball tradition and could tap into the Kentucky-Indiana-Ohio regional market. Vancouver deserves another shot after the Grizzlies' premature departure - that market has evolved tremendously since the late 90s. Even Montreal has been quietly building its case, though hockey will always dominate there. Personally, I'd love to see the NBA return to Vancouver; the city's demographic transformation since 2001 makes it a completely different market today.
The expansion fee conversation is equally intriguing. Based on recent franchise valuations, I'd expect the NBA to charge around $3.5 billion per new team, potentially generating $7 billion in expansion fees if they add two teams as expected. That money would be distributed among existing owners, making expansion particularly attractive when the next media rights deal approaches in 2025. Having studied league expansion history, this financial windfall often serves as the primary motivator for owners despite their public statements about "strategic growth."
Ultimately, the NBA's expansion decision will reshape the league's geographic and financial landscape for decades. While I'm emotionally invested in Seattle's return and fascinated by international possibilities, the business case for Las Vegas seems increasingly undeniable. Whatever cities ultimately receive teams, the expansion process represents one of the most exciting developments in professional sports - creating new fanbases, new rivalries, and new traditions. Just like that electric atmosphere in Manila during the Crossovers game, new NBA cities will experience that special transformation when professional basketball comes to town.
